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DOI : http://dx.doi.org.gate3.inist.fr/10.1016/j.proenv.2012.01.113 [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Gengyuan Liu, Zhifeng Yang, Bin Chen, Meirong Su (State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing) Paru dans : Procedia Environmental Sciences, Volume 13, 2012, Pages 1189-1203, 18th Biennial ISEM Conference on Ecological Modelling for Global Change and Coupled Human and Natural System Abstract In this paper, a dynamic low-carbon model was developed to show a quantitative and consistent future snapshot. This study presents three scenarios for Chongqing's energy consumption and related CO2 emissions up to 2020, which includes basic development scenario, macro-policy control development scenario and low carbon development scenario. It explains the crucial technologies for Chongqing city as it leaves a business-as-usual trajectory and embarks on a low carbon pathway. A major finding from the scenario analysis is that low carbon and energy-saving policies can dramatically improve Chongqing's position. Under the low carbon scenario, several suggestions for policy making are proposed. This dynamic low-carbon model would benefit from the allocation of decision-making powers in the areas of regulation, policy-making and planning for low carbon development.

[ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : XiaoFang Sun, TianXiangYue, ZeMeng Fan Paru dans : Procedia Environmental Sciences, Volume 13, 2012, Pages 590-597 18th Biennial ISEM Conference on Ecological Modelling for Global Change and Coupled Human and Natural System Abstract Land use changes affect many aspects of Earth System functioning, for example in impacting global carbon cycle, contributing to climate change, or increasing soil erosion. The simulation of land use change is important in environmental impact assessment and land use planning. We assessed the land use scenarios of China in the next 100 years based on the SMLC (surface modelling of land cover change) model and Dyna-CLUE (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects) model. Three SRES scenarios were evaluated: Global Economy (A1FI): lean government, strong globalization; Continental Markets (A2a): lean government, regional culture and economic development; Regional communities (B2a): much government intervention, regional cultural and economic development. Ten land cover types were simulated, which are cultivated land, woodland, grassland, built-up land, water area, wetland, nival area, desert, bare rock and desertification land. The SMLC model was used to calculate changes in area for each land use types in the future at country level while the spatially explicit land use model Dyna-CLUE was used to simulate land use pattern at 2 km2 resolution based on the country level areas demands for each land cover type. The results show that the cultivated land would decrease in all of the three scenarios, while in the A2a scenario, the cultivated land would decrease with the lowest rate because of the high population growth, high level of market protection and low agricultural efficiency; in the B2a scenario, it would decrease with the highest rate caused by the decreased population numbers and increased crop productivity. The nival area would decrease with the highest rate in the A1FI

DOI : http://dx.doi.org.gate3.inist.fr/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.11.006 [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Kai-ya Wu, Hao Zhang Paru dans : Applied Geography, Volume 34, May 2012, Pages 137-145 Abstract In this study, Hangzhou, the capital city of Zhejiang Province in eastern China was selected as a case study. Based on time series Landsat MSS/TM/ETM + imagery and historical census data, analysis of the relationship between land use dynamics, built-up land expansion patterns, and underlying driving forces from 1978 to 2008 was performed, using an integrated approach of remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques and statistical methods. The results showed that rapid expansion of built-up land in the Hangzhou Metropolitan Area (HMA) led to accelerated land use conversion. The built-up land increased from 319.3 km2 in 1978 to 862.5 km2 in 2008. Expansion patterns of built-up land in the HMA were essentially characterized by axial expansion centered on the former city proper before 1991. In 1996 and 2001, two significant administrative division adjustments for the former city proper and two neighboring municipalities occurred. This led to the success in implementing strategies of "frog-leaping development along the Qiantang River" and "crossing the Qiantang River and developing southward". Spatially, a closer linkage between the former city proper and two neighboring municipalities was established. Consequently, rapid development of infrastructures, facilities, intensive industrial parks, and urban and rural settlements along the Qiantang River resulted in the eastward and southward expansion of built-up land. Thus, from 1991 to 2008 the model of urban expansion resulted in a multi-nuclei pattern. Furthermore, as shown with detailed analysis, the growth pattern of built-up land of the HMA is highly correlated with socio-economic factors, including the gross domestic product (GDP), per capita disposable income, popul

Thématique 2 [ScienceDirect, via Biblio-SHS] Auteur : Thomas Vendryes Paru dans : China Economic Review Volume 22, Issue 4, December 2011, Pages 669-692 Sustainable natural resource use in rural China - Has China Passed the Lewis Turning Point? CERDI 2009 - CERDI 2009 Abstract Rural-urban migration flows are a crucial corollary of economic development. The adverse or beneficial effects of internal migration, for sending as well as receiving areas, and the definition of optimal migration policies, have remained much discussed issues since the seminal works of Harris and Todaro (1970). This debate is especially acute in China where the "household registration system" (hukou) acts as a strong constraint on individual migration. This paper aims to assess the consequences of hukou through a simple model of a developing dual economy with overlapping generations. Contrary to existing studies focused on the contemporaneous allocation of economic resources, it deals with the dynamic consequences of migration flows and migration policies. It shows that, in fairly general circumstances, hukou-related migration constraints can actually hasten development, understood as the transfer of the labor force to the modern sector, driven by capital accumulation. The hukou system could thus be one of the causes of the extremely high Chinese saving rate and of the high pace of Chinese development. Insights from the model are confronted with stylized facts from the Chinese development, and theoretical results are especially consistent with the effects of the 2001 "towns and small cities" reform.

Programmes Wider Europe Image China Image Middle East and North Africa Other projects Scorecard 2012 Reinvention of Europe Security & Defence Germany in Europe Human rights Events Poland towards France and Germany: the new opening? - 27 Jun 12 We were pleased to see you at the debate Poland towards France and Germany: the new opening? with participation of Georges Mink and Janusz Reiter. We discussed Poland's position relative to the current Franco-German dynamics. It was, and still is, of particular importance due to the growing risk of a two-speed Europe, in which Poland would definitely have to take a back seat. Go to Events page China at the crossroads: are the reformers winning the argument? China has reached a crossroads. After years of political stability and enviable economic growth, the regime has been facing a stark choice about how the country should move forward. But two crucial recent political events have turned Chinese politics on its head, and are forcing it to decide whether to regress or reform. Over the last year villagers in Wukan, in Guangdong province, rose up and ousted their corrupt local leaders after months of protest. Meanwhile, Bo Xilai, the Communist Party secretary in Chongqing, who used Maoist rhetoric and violence to push his vision of economic development, was ousted from his post in March. In a new ECFR essay, 'China at the crossroads', François Godement argues that these two events signal that the Chinese government may be choosing the path of legal and political reform, promoting sustainable growth to reduce macroeconomic imbalances and overreliance on the dollar. François argues that: With seven of the nine Politburo Standing Committee members due to be replaced this year, there has been a battle for influence with reformers warning that China is facing a 'success trap' of an economic and political model unsuited to the current stage of development, and capture by vested interests.